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Topics - analyst75

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451
Trading Signals on the EUR Pairs (October 6 - 24, 2014)

EURUSD = Buy

EURCAD = Buy

EURAUD = Buy

EURNZD = Buy

EURJPY = Buy

EURCHF = Buy

EURGBP = Buy

NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips.  Only 0. 5% is risked per trade.  With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0. 1 would be used.  The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made.  A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained.

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn?t be construed as trading advice. 

452
STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / A Simple Change in Trading Signals Approach
« on: October 06, 2014, 08:53:04 AM »
?Trading for a retail trader is the best job in the world, and if you can perform it without holding a PhD in statistics? how much time you?ve saved!? ? Professor Emilio Tomasini

We?d like to announce a necessary but simple change in our trading signals approach.  With the new approach, a market direction for a relevant trading instrument would be given, e. g.  USDCAD = Sell.  Then an interested person would simply set a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips for the trade.  The stop loss and take profit can be set before, or immediately after a trade is opened. 

This is necessary because effort has been made to improve the accuracy of the signals, and therefore, the frequency of the signals will be increased.  The signals generated since September 19, 2014 have been reflecting the effort.  We can now look forward to better trading results on a quarterly basis (with thousands of pips in some months). 

For example, should it be seen that the CHF pairs might become weak, there would be signals thus:

USDCHF = Buy

EURCHF = Buy

GBPCHF = Buy

AUDCHF = Buy

NZDCHF = Buy

CADCHF = Buy

CHFJPY = Sell

When the USD is very strong, almost every pair that has the USD as the base currency would rise and any pair that has the USD as the counter currency would fall.  When the USD is very weak, almost every pair that has the USD as the base currency would fall and any pair that has the USD as the counter currency would rise.

Someone who predicted that the EUR would be strong around the middle of September 2014 would have been somewhat correct in spite of the fact that the EURUSD was weak throughout that month.  Why? The EURAUD, the EURZND, and the EURJPY rallied massively in September 2014 (the EURNZD alone rose by more than 800 pips).  Therefore, EURUSD fell only because the USD was stronger than the EUR. 

Successful Forex trading is all about matching weak currencies with strong currencies, and anyone that can do that effectively will always come out ahead no matter what, when her/his results are evaluated on monthly/quarterly/annual basis. 

With improved hit rate, one may be tempted to bet big on each trade, but it?s far better to bet very small.  What cause big roll-downs are lot sizes that are too big for a particular portfolio balance.  For each trade, only 0. 5% should be risked.  In trading, the less our risk per trade, the more money we make in the long run.  Another benefit is that 0. 5% risk per trade isn?t only a protection to our portfolios; it?s also a protection to our nerves.  With this kind of low risk, we?re naturally indifferent to the outcome of an individual trade.  Yes, we trade with peace of mind. 

Since we use an RRR of 1:2, we simply have good chances of moving ahead.  It?s like risking 0. 5% to gain 1% - risking $1 to gain $2.  With seven trades, we risk a total of 3. 5% to gain a total of 7%.  The forecasts come with about 70% potential accuracy, but with only 40% accuracy we?ll be ultimately triumphant.  In another instance, we make nice profits even when we win 9 trades out of 21.  We break even when we win only 7 trades out of 21. 

Trade and risk management recommendations would accompany the signals.  The purpose of risk management is to keep our accounts permanently safe no matter our trading results.  Nevertheless, risk management can?t make us money ? only bold predictions will make us money.  Bold predictions make our accounts grow when we?re correct, and risk management keeps our accounts safe when our predictions are wrong.  This is one example of the beauty of trading. 

Our breakthrough in the markets begins in a new direction.  Until you become a trader or an investor, you can?t access the riches the markets offer. 

This article is ended by the quote below:

?Professional traders have a rare talent, and feel fulfilled because they express their talent by trading profitably. ? ? Joe Ross

453
Here?s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
The EUR is now one of the weakest currencies among the majors, while the USD is the strongest currency among the majors.  Hence, the EURUSD dropped sharply again last week, dropping below the resistance line at 1. 2550.  Further downwards movement may cause the price to test the support lines at 1. 2500 and 1. 2450.  However, it is very much likely that the EUR would begin to rally before the end of this week, which may eventually cause the aforementioned support lines to end up aiding the bulls. 

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
The movement of this market is largely determined by what is happening to the USD and the EURUSD.  A serious rally in the EURUSD may result in a sharp pullback on the USDCHF, which may make it to test the support level at 0. 9550; whereas a continuation of the weakness in the EURUSD may cause the USDCHF to test the resistance level at 0. 9750.  But it should not be thought that the USD would reach parity with the CHF.   

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish   
The Cable dropped by over 270 pips last week, closing below the distribution territory at 1. 6000.  The price may reach the accumulation territory at 1. 5900, which could be easily test this week ? it could even get breached to the downside.  On the other hand, the distribution territories at 1. 6050 and 1. 6100 may be targeted by the bulls. 

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This is a very strong currency trading instrument, forming a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.  There was a sharp pullback in the market last week, brought about by transitory stamina in the Yen.   Eventually, the sharp pullback proffered an opportunity to go long when things went on sale in the context of a downtrend.  The current rally in the market could lead the price towards the supply level at 110. 50. 

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since this market tested the supply zone at 141. 00, it has come down by over about 400 pips.  The demand zone at 137. 00 has been tested, and the demand zone to watch this week is at 136. 00.  Should the EUR rally significantly enough, there may be a bullish run in this market, which could make become a threat to the current bearish outlook. 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

?Information is power.  Most big profits are gained through one person knowing something that most other people don?t. ? ? Skip Archimedes

454
Instrument: AUDJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: September 29, 2014
Entry price: 95. 417
Stop loss: 94. 406
Take profit: 97. 407

Instrument: AUDUSD
Order: Buy
Entry date: September 29, 2014
Entry price: 0. 87171
Stop loss: 0. 86163
Take profit: 0. 89162

Instrument: EURAUD
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 29, 2014
Entry price: 1. 45547
Stop loss: 1. 46559
Take profit: 1. 43561

Instrument: AUDCAD
Order: Buy
Entry date: September 29, 2014
Entry price: 0. 97262
Stop loss: 0. 99249
Take profit: 0. 97254

Instrument: AUDCHF
Order: Buy
Entry date: September 29, 2014
Entry price: 0. 82937
Stop loss: 0. 81918
Take profit: 0. 84918

Instrument: GBPAUD
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 29, 2014
Entry price: 1. 86314
Stop loss: 1. 87339
Take profit: 1. 84339

Instrument: AUDNZD
Order: Buy
Entry date: September 29, 2014
Entry price: 1. 12271
Stop loss: 1. 11261
Take profit: 1. 14261

NB: 1% per trade is risked.  All open trades are closed after the duration of the signals has expired.  A breakeven stop is used after a 70-pip gain and a trailing stop of 100 pips is used after a gain of 170 pips. 

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn?t be construed as trading advice. 

455
STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / Defense is Better than Attack in Trading
« on: September 28, 2014, 09:50:38 PM »
?Defensive strategic trading clearly is more successful in the long run than you might think! There will always be people who briefly achieve huge returns using daring maneuvers, but in the long term the strategist with an approach based on sound statistics will be successful??

When an advancing army anticipates attack, they tend to prepare themselves so that they can fend off the attack successfully.  When a state of war seems hopeless, an intelligent and experienced general would tell his army to wait and let the enemy attack first, while they prepare for the attack.  Defense is better than attack.  In football, when a team is too desperate to score goals at all costs, their defense may be unknowingly put in disarray and this may enable the opposing team to utilize the sudden weakness and score a goal, thereby frustrating the team?s effort. 

The same is true of trading, because the most important goal is not to lose our money.  When we achieve the goal, there would be times when profits would come normally.  We not need to bury our heads in the sand, ignoring reality.  We would need to come to grips with the fact that we may not survive the markets permanently until we learn how to deal with the uncertainty of the markets.  The way risk is handled clearly differentiates between a market veteran and a novice.  A market veteran does not react negatively during a loss; whereas a novice does.   A veteran waits for another trade after some negativity ? she/he does not overreact when there is loss.

If we feel that all our trades will be profitable, we might later be surprised that we are not right.  The market does not ask for our approval before it turns against us.  The fly does not ask for our permission before it perches on us.  Negativity happens in all ventures.  The ultimate action we can take is to tame the risk and not gamble our funds away ? as many traders do.

The quote above is from Rene Wolfram.  The quote below is also from him, (based on his interview in TRADERS?, September 2014).  The quote below ends this article: 

?Most traders think topics like mental coaching or risk management are boring, but that?s exactly where the problem is: These things are the most important ones in trading.  And there?s another problem: Many traders know trading approaches that work but are simply incapable of implementing them on a regular basis. ?

456
GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
This market became bearish in July 2014, and since then the price has dived by over 1300 points.  The bias is still very bearish ? characterized by great volatility in the market.  This shows that there is a serious struggle between the bull and the bear.  The price has tested the support level at 1206. 00, and with more weakness in the market, the price may breach the support level to the downside, going towards another support levels at 1205. 00 and 1204. 00 respectively.  The bull ? though currently fighting a losing battle ? may eventually succeed in pushing the price upwards towards the resistance levels at 1235. 00.  Should the price rally above that resistance level, it may be a serious threat to the bearish outlook. 


SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish 
Since July 2014, Silver has dropped by over 4000 points, going downwards with magnanimous alacrity and reaching as low as the demand zone at 17. 3000.  This sustained trending movement shows the wonderful advantage of running one?s winner and truncating one?s negativity.  It also shows that in a strong trend like this, short-term counter-trend movements invariably proffer new opportunities to join the trend at bargain prices.  Further movement to the south may cause the aforementioned demand zone to be breached to the downside, allowing the bear to target another demand zone at 17. 0000.  However, it ought to be repeated that there is a high possibility of a strong rally around the months of November/December 2014. 

457
Here?s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
The bearish journey of this pair has continued unabated; in a slow and steady manner.  In the past several weeks, the market has been breaking one support line after the other and it is currently trading below the resistance line at 1. 2800.  Further bearish journey might cause the price to test another support lines at 1. 2700 and 1. 2650 successively.  Along the way, there is also a risk of large rallies ? which can be brought about by sudden weakness in the Greenback.  The probable rallies can take the price towards the resistance lines at 1. 2900 and 1. 2950.   

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
The USDCHF pair has been achieving incredible feats by breaking one resistance level after the other.  The pair has succeeded in closing above the support level at 0. 9400, going further upwards.  As long as the USD is strong (and the EURUSD is weak), the pair would be going upwards.  There are possible targets at the resistance levels at 0. 9500 and 0. 9550; whereas the support levels at 0. 9350 and 0. 9300 should act as barriers to southward attempts along way. 

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish   
There is a bullish signal in this market, as long as it stays above the accumulation territory of 1. 6300.  However, the bullish signal is very precarious because of the bears? effort to drag the price further downwards.  The market is largely moving sideways and thus, a breakout is expected.  A breakout to the upside may cause the price to test the distribution territories at 1. 6450 and 1. 6500, while a break to the downside would cause the price to test the accumulation territories at 1. 6200 and 1. 6150 respectively. 

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency trading instrument is still strong, given the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.  The USDJPY can still go further north, but long orders should be handled with caution because the possibility of a determined bearish correction is now very high.  While the USDJPY might manage to reach the psychological supply level at 100. 00, any exponential weakness may cause the market to retrace southward towards the demand levels at 108. 00 and 107. 50. 

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish 
This cross is still generally bullish, but the pullback that has occurred since last week has made the price action dangerous for the bulls.  With a movement below the demand zone at 138. 50, the bullish bias would be rendered completely invalid.  The price needs to break the supply zone at 140. 50 to the upside so that the bullish trend can resume; otherwise we may expect the bias to turn completely bearish. 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

?In financial markets too, there are underlying forces an investor or trader has to know and needs to respect in order to be successful. ? ? Dirk Vandycke

458
TRUE STORIES / The Costliest Assassination in World?s History
« on: September 21, 2014, 04:27:36 AM »
The most expensive assassination in world?s history did not happen in North America or Asia or on any other continent apart from Europe.  The assassination was carried out by someone who was often considered to be too weak, small in stature, and sickly to fire a shot that would be heard throughout the whole world.   It was carried out by someone who came from an extremely poor and impoverished family; a family that saw most of its offspring die in infancy.  The assassin, however, was not executed, though arrested.  He died of a natural cause ? TB.   

Yes, a gaunt hound could hunt down a squirrel.  Most viewed the assassin as a villain, but certain people saw him as a hero.  A plaque still commemorates his action and his weapon can still be found in a museum.  The history of the First World War will never be complete without mentioning his name.  The reason why his act of assassination was the costliest in world?s history would be mentioned at the end of this article.

The assassin was Gavrilo Princip.

Princip lived from 1894 to 1918.  Since his folks could not cater for him, he went to live with his elder brother in Sarajevo.  After some studies, he joined a nationalist movement which favored a union of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia.  He wanted to join an irregular Serbian guerrilla unit whose aim was to achieve Bosnia-Herzegovina independence from Austro-Hungary; but his application was declined.  He also made another attempt, yet he was rejected because of his fragile and weak stature.  As a result of this, it was thought that he decided to prove himself by doing something extraordinarily brave. 

Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his pregnant wife, Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg, were invited by General Oskar Potiorek, Governor of the Austrian provinces of Bosnia and Herzegovina.  Archduke Franz Ferdinand accepted the invitation, though he knew it was dangerous to do so.  Meanwhile, a group of conspirators, including Princip had been instructed to kill the Archduke and then commit suicide.  They were given some poison and weapons.  When the Archduke and his wife arrived, their car began to speed along the Appel Quay.  One of the conspirators, Muhamed Mehmedba?ić became afraid and thus failed to carry out his plan.  Another one, Nedeljko Čabrinović was bold enough to throw a bomb at the royal car.  The royal car was driven faster by its driver, who saw the bomb flying toward them.  This made the bomb injure the next car following the royal car.  The two VIPs inside the car were badly injured.   The attacker tried in vain to commit suicide: it became apparent that the poison he was given was not effective, and thus, he was arrested.

The Archduke was given a grand reception, after which he decided to visit Čabrinović's victims in the hospital.  General Oskar Potiorek wanted him to take another route, but the royal driver was not advised of this, so he turned into Franz Josef Street.  Gavrilo Princip was around a caf? when he saw the royal car coming.  The driver came back to his senses and tried to reverse the car.  However, before he could go out of that place, Princip took the opportunity, moving closer to them.  The distance between him and the royal car was 1. 5 meters.  He shot two times into the car, hitting the Archduke in the neck and the pregnant Sophie in the abdomen.  They both died shortly after. 

The pistol used by Princip was wrested from him.  He was arrested at the scene and taken into custody.  Under the then law, he was too young to be sentenced to death, and he therefore bagged a maximum of 20 years of imprisonment.  He was incarcerated in harsh conditions which even became worse as the First War World I raged. 

On 28 April, 1918, Gavrilo Princip died of tuberculosis.  That was the end of the perpetrator of the costliest assassination in the world. 

What made Princip?s action so expensive? Well, there was a series of events that led to the War ? one of them was the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand (which was the last straw that broke the camel?s back).  That very assassination was used as an alibi for the Great War.  When Princip?s colleagues were nabbed, some members of the Serbian military were implicated.  Austria-Hungary therefore issued an ultimatum, making some demands that could not be totally met by Serbia.  Because of this, one thing led to the other and nations began to declare war against nations.  The War lasted from 1914 to 1918.   

What was the cost of that war? About 38. 8 million people were dead, missing and wounded.   The financial cost of the War was far more than $186 billion.  These affected Allied and Central powers.  War is definitely not a good thing!

Do you know any costlier assassination? 

For further reading: hxxp: www. firstworldwar. com/bio/princip. htm
And: hxxp: www. spartacus. schoolnet. co. uk/FWWprincip. htm


Youtube: Gavrilo Princip

And: ! Private video

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: hxxp: www. amazon. co. uk/Learn-Generals-Market-Azeez-Mustapha/dp/1908756314

459
CELEBRITIES and ENTERTAINMENTS / He Stabbed His Own Wife More Than 500 Times
« on: September 21, 2014, 04:06:49 AM »
The murderer mentioned above is Robert Bailey.     His murdered wife was a 36 year old former legal secretary who once referred to her husband as being like one of their 3 children.     The husband aged 46 at the time, was a bus driver.     

The incident happened on September 11, 2008, and it was preceded by an argument in the kitchen.     The woman was stabbed more than 500 times.     Being stabbed in the kitchen of their Locker Park suburban home, that attack and struggle were protracted.     Bailey made use of a double pronged carving blade and many knives on Elaine, his poor wife.     There were also many penetrating and superficial wounds to her body.     

The woman got most of the stabs while she was still breathing; though she received more stabs after she died.      The woman suffered severe agonies before her death.      There were at least, 126 penetrating wounds to her face and head, with most around her eyes.     At least, 4 stabs went through her eye sockets into her underlying brain.     

The blows, stabs, punctured and incised wounds were inflicted with a measure of force.     About two stabs entered her chest ? one penetrating her heart and the other went through her lung.      Additionally, her arms and hands were seriously stabbed as she struggled to defend herself.     The pattern of the mutilation was bizarre.     The woman died in an unthinkable situation.     

At the time of her murder, her body was so mutilated to the extent that her parents, along with authorities, were only able to recognize her body by her dental records.     

After he was satisfied with the way he killed his wife, Bailey left for a neighbor?s house, wearing a Liverpool FC shirt covered with blood.     The neighbor was Glynis Boyle.     He banged on her window with a foot-long knife he had in his hand.     The neighbor saw someone that looked maniac and possessed, swearing oaths.     She had to call 999 and escaped into her garden.     Meanwhile, he was able to enter her house stabbing her furniture and causing additional damages that were worth ?20,000.     When police officers came, they escorted Mrs.     Boyle to safety.     They saw Bailey watching television, grinning: knife in hand.      He had smashed a window to get to one officer that was escorting Mrs.     Boyle to safety, though he did not leave the house.     

When armed officers came to him to arrest him, he stabbed himself in the chest, piercing his diaphragm.      He was however taken to the hospital and treated.     

When they got to Bailey?s house, they saw his dead wife in the kitchen with knives scattered around her body.     The murder scene was cordoned off

At Liverpool Crown Court, the emotionless man later accepted that he murdered his own wife.     He was jailed for life with a minimum of 20 years imprisonment.   

The victim?s folks stated that they thought justice had been done as Robert began his life imprisonment for the morbid and horrifying killing of their precious daughter.      Though the dead cannot come back, Elaine would continue to live through her 3 kids who are now being cared for by Stuart, Elaine?s brother.     

The folks received condolence letter and cards; which proved that she was loved very much and sorely missed by those who knew her.     They showed appreciation for the support they also received from their local community and churches.     

They said what remained for them to do was to continue staying together as a family and to mold their kid?s lives in the best possible way.     

Later it was reported that the man would be allowed to appeal his jail sentence.      The accused believed the life sentence was too harsh and 20 years too long.     He was granted leave to appeal against the Liverpool Crown Court?s pronouncement at the Court Of Appeal.   

The reason why he was granted the chance to appeal the case was because of his mental condition.     It was thought that the nature of the killing was unusual and the court did not know the fact about his mental condition before the sentence.     His psychiatric report was not shown prior to the judgment.     This would allow for further investigation.   

Bailey had suffered from depression and was treated for it.     Nevertheless, he was not thought of being able to commit such grievous crime.     He did not know why he lost his sanity and reasoning, but he admitted that the stabs were brutal.     He used to have breakdown.     His mother committed suicide when he was 27.     

Bailey, who has been suffering from behavioral and learning disorders, said he always argued with his wife, for she used to look down on him; plus she used to act like the boss of the house, so he was often afraid of his her.     He claimed he lost control completely on the day he killed his wife.   

The coupled got married in 1990 and they seemed happy, although Elaine?s mother commented that Bailey had been jealous of the kids since their last kid was born.     The kids are two boys and a girl who has Down?s Syndrome.     Elaine?s mother conversed on phone with her daughter on the day she was going to be killed.     Elaine talked ok, but when she was asked how her husband was doing, she replied that she was annoyed with him for not taking his tablets, but she hoped that he would be alright in 6 days? time.     

Adapted from these sources:
hxxp: www. wirralglobe. co. uk/news/4104641. Life_for_man_who_stabbed_wife_more_than_500_times/

hxxp: www. liverpoolecho. co. uk/news/liverpool-news/wirral-man-who-stabbed-wife-3433767

hxxp: news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/merseyside/7872830. stm


Learn from the Generals of the Markets: hxxp: www. amazon. co. uk/Learn-Generals-Market-Azeez-Mustapha/dp/1908756314

460
Instrument: USDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 19, 2014
Entry price: 108.  795
Stop loss: 109.  811
Take profit: 106.  811

Instrument: AUDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 19, 2014
Entry price: 97.  615
Stop loss: 98.  653
Take profit: 95.  654

Instrument: CADJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 19, 2014
Entry price: 99.  243
Stop loss: 100.  261
Take profit: 97.  259

Instrument: CHFJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 19, 2014
Entry price: 115.  927
Stop loss: 116.  926
Take profit: 113.  929

Instrument: EURJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 19, 2014
Entry price: 139.  922
Stop loss: 140.  942
Take profit: 137.  944

Instrument: GBPJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 19, 2014
Entry price: 178.  026
Stop loss: 179.  042
Take profit: 176.  043

Instrument: NZDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 19, 2014
Entry price: 88.  583
Stop loss: 89.  613
Take profit: 86.  615

NB: 1% per trade is risked.   All open trades are closed after the duration of the signals has expired.   A breakeven stop is used after a 70-pip gain and a trailing stop of 100 pips is used after a gain of 170 pips.   

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn?t be construed as trading advice.   



461
Here?s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
The bias on the EURUSD is still very bearish irrespective of the shallow rally the market is currently experiencing.  In this market, rallies have proffered opportunities to sell short in the context of a downtrend.  The continuation of the bearish bias may force the price to test the support line at 1. 2800.  Along the way, serious bullish breakouts may be contained at the resistance lines of 1. 3000 and 1. 3050.  Any movement above these resistance lines would signify the beginning a new bullish journey. 

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
This currency trading instrument is in a bullish mode ? with a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.  The bulls have always been interested in pushing the pair further upwards, but this is not without stubborn challenges from the bears.  The challenges have resulted in high volatility in the market, and the price may still manage to reach the resistance level at 0. 9500, which is the target for next week (provided that the USD continues to be strong). 

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish   
This pair - unlike its EURUSD counterpart - has broken upwards in favor of the bulls.  In fact, the price action in the market has resulted in an established bullish signal and short trades are no longer rational.  The market is now moving above the accumulation territory at 1. 6300, going towards the distribution territory at 1. 6450.  As long as the market is above the aforementioned accumulation territory, the bullish signal is considered valid.   

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This is a strong bull market which has been going upwards since July 2014.  Since then, the perpetual weakness in the Yen has enabled this pair to move north by over 750 pips.  The same weakness in the Yen has enabled most other JPY pairs go north significantly.  This market looks very overbought and a reversal is imminent, but is not advisable to go against the trend until that reversal has taken place.  The market can still go further north; testing the supply levels at 109. 50 and 110. 00.  Should the Yen gain any considerable stamina, the market may plunge towards the demand levels at 107. 00 and 106. 50. 

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish 
It is not a surprise that the EUR, which is weak somewhere else, is strong versus the JPY.  The weakness in the JPY is the basic reason for the bullish momentum that is driving this market upwards.  From the demand zone at 136. 00, the price skyrocketed above the demand zone at   140. 00, going further upwards.  This is a movement of over 440 pips since last week.  The market is overbought, but it is still seen as being capable of reaching the supply zones at 150. 50 and 160. 00 respectively.  Nevertheless, the downside risk is now very high and any sudden strength in the Yen could make the price tumble, reaching the demand zones at 139. 00 and 138. 50. 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

"With love and patience, nothing is impossible for a dedicated trader. " -- Old Trader

462
Here?s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
The EURUSD has been consolidating recently ? neither going upwards nor downwards significantly.  A breakout is expected very soon, which may likely be in the direction of the dominant bias.  This southward break may take the price towards the resistance levels at 1. 2850 and 1. 2800 successively.  However, a rally above the resistance lines at 1. 3000 and 1. 3050 could mean the beginning of a new bullish journey.   

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
As long as the EURUSD is weak, the USDCHF is bound to be strong.  The resistance level at 0. 9400 is about to be tested and should that happen, a breach of that resistance level could cause the price to nose towards another resistance level at 0. 9450.  Along the way, a sudden pullback may also try to take the price towards the support level at 0. 9250. 

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
This currency trading instrument remains bearish when looking at the big picture, but the recent rally in the market can pose a threat to the big picture, especially if it continues.  As long as the price is under the distribution territory at 1. 6350, the bearish outlook is valid.  Only a break above that distribution territory would signify a new bullish signal.  Further bearish continuation can push the price towards the accumulation territory at 1. 6100, which was previously tested.   

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
As it was forecasted, this market was able to move above the demand levels at 106. 00 and 106. 50.  The price is currently trading above the demand level at 107. 00 and the next target could be the supply levels at 107. 50 and 108. 00.  There are barriers to bears? machinations at the demand levels at 106. 50 and 106. 00.  The bullish signal remains valid as long as the market is above these demand levels. 

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish 
The weakness in Yen and the bullish determination in the EUR have enabled this cross to shoot skywards.  In fact, the skyward movement has resulted in a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.  From the demand zone at 136. 00, the price has skyrocketed by over 260 pips (most other JPY pairs are also bullish).  With more weakness in the Yen, the price might reach the supply zone at 140. 00 soon.   

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

?Trading has a poor image among the public, which I don?t think it deserves. . .  Good trading principles are also helpful in normal life. ? - Rene Wolfram

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STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / Tom Hougaard: A Superstar Trader/Investor
« on: September 10, 2014, 09:19:47 PM »
LEARN FROM THE GENERALS OF THE MARKETS - PART 52

?I have been taught the emotional pain of large losses when my ego wanted me to trade too big, and the pain of missing a huge move due to fear of entering a trade. ? ? Steve Burns

Born in 1969, in Denmark, Tom Hougaard later moved to the United Kingdom in 1992, where he obtained BA and MSc in Economics and Finance.  He worked at Chase Manhattan Bank, but left the bank in the year 2000 to manage his personal portfolios.  After that, he was employed by a brokerage company. 

In 2002, he was chief market strategist at city index where he made copious market comments on popular media.  He?s also handled trading presentations and written many articles.  In 2009, he started a website named ?WhichWayToday? (whichwaytoday. com) where he posts premium articles, trading commentaries and runs a live trading room.  The performances of the trading room have been very impressive. 

Tom is a successful trader who?s been showing others how to make money through his trading room services, articles and others.  He owns a website named TraderTom. com.  On that website, one would see some wonderful articles that reveal some of the greatest trading truths. 

Lessons
These are some of the lessons you can learn from Tom:

1.    One of the fastest ways to make money in the markets is to copy what successful traders are doing, either by social trading or trading rooms services or signals strategies services. 

2.    There are money management, trade management, and risk management styles that are at variance with the mainstream ideas; yet they?re successful in the markets. 

3.    The extremely popular analytical tools like Fibonacci extension and retracement levels, Gann?s line and grid, Elliot Waves, Andrew Pitchfork and some others are far from being the Holy Grail.  In fact, many traders lose money with those popular tools in spite of them being venerated by the so-called gurus.  The secrets to success don?t lie in those analytical tools.  Rather the secrets to success lie in what most traders can?t do. 

4.    Our mind is our enemy! This is true in most critical aspects of life as well as trading.  We want good results and we?re very enthusiastic about getting those results.  Nevertheless when it comes to facing the realities that have to do with the process of getting those results, we compromise ? we even give up.  Those who want to start a strict program to lose weight aren?t discipline enough to deny themselves of some things so that they can achieve their goals.  Those who need to fast to achieve some spiritual and/or health goals quickly compromise when their body reacts violently to lack of food (we?re addicted to food).  Most of us can?t help staying away from foods and habits that are dangerous to our health.  We want to go to gym to stay fit, but we?re reluctant to go when the time comes.  We know it?s bad to make/receive phone calls while driving, but we can?t resist the temptation.  We know what?s good, but we find it more agreeable to do what?s bad.  The same is true of trading.  We tend to do those things that aren?t in our best interest as traders.  We stay away from the markets or even quit trading altogether when we face challenges in the markets; whereas the way we deal with the challenges is what makes the difference between a successful trader and a failure who?s no longer a trader. 

We hear sweet talks from those who motivate us to do exploits in life, including the markets, but we can?t follow their recommendations.  Tom says: ?The chemical boost of imagining the outcome, to say the outcome out loud is essentially all the motivational speakers are facilitating to create success for themselves.  Very few of them actually help people, not for the lack of trying, but because of who we human beings are.  According to him, motivational talks are good enough to give us the feeling of achievement, but never take us to the full potential.  One moment the mind is your friend, and the next moment it is the enemy, standing in the way of you achieving your goal.  This is also true of trading. 

5.    When the trend changes, one needs to admit that and trade accordingly.  It is not logical to think that the market would trend in a direction forever.  We should be able to take advantage of the biases in the markets at any time.  Great trading instruments must be cheap enough for buyers or expensive enough for sellers. 

Conclusion: Tom makes money in bear and bull markets, and you can do the same.  It?s worrisome that some traders still dread bear markets, while preferring only bull markets.  Bear markets are also great for making money ? you simply need to go short.  A downtrend is usually accompanied by common dread and worry on the part of the speculator.  While this kind of reaction is not a surprise, for the average speculator doesn?t think that the market may go bearish before they actually go bearish.  However, instead of staying out of a downtrend, one can employ trading approaches that work in bear markets. 

This article is ended with a quote from Tom Hougaard:

?However, the most important lesson I learned was why 99. 9% of people fail at reaching their goals in life.  We are addicted to pleasure and will avoid pain like the plague. ?


464
GBPNZD = Sell

GBPUSD = Sell

EURGBP = Buy

GBPCHF = Sell

GBPJPY = Buy

GBPCAD = Buy

GBPAUD = Buy

NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips.  The signals may become too late to be taken after 7. 00 AM GMT.  Only 0. 5% is risked per trade.  With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0. 1 would be used.  The trading duration is 2 weeks.  The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made.  A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained. 


Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn?t be construed as trading advice. 


465
Here?s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
The sudden weakness in the EUR has caused this pair to tumble.  The pair was already bearish when this happened (it has been bearish since June 2014).  On Thursday, September 4, 2014, the pair fell further by over 200 pips.  In fact, all other EUR pairs tumbled.  Therefore, it is plausible to expect further downward plunge in the market, and should this hold true, the price could reach the support levels at 1. 2850 and 1. 2800.  On the other hand, it could have happened that the pair has hit a rock-solid bottom that may be a barrier to further southward journey for the next several weeks.  Any rallies in the context of the downtrend could take the price back towards the resistance levels at 1. 3100 and 1. 3150. 

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
Since the USD/CHF is negatively correlated to the EUR/USD, it is no wonder that the former has gone upwards determinedly.  Really, our target for this week has been exceeded and price is now poised to go upwards towards the resistance levels at 0. 9400 and 0. 9450.  However, the USD attainment of parity with the CHF is not likely in the long run ? that is a far cry.  As long as the EUR is weak and the USD is strong, the bullish trend would continue; but should the opposite occur, a strong bearish retracement may force the price to test the support levels at 0. 9200 and 0. 9150 respectively.     

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
The consolidated bullish attempt that occurred on the Cable last week turned out to be an opportunity to go short.  This week, the market has dropped by over 300 pips, going below the distribution territory at 1. 3650.  The distribution territories at 1. 6400 and 1. 6450 could be barriers to any bullish attempts in the context of the currently strong downtrend.  The next target in the market is the accumulation territory at 1. 6200. 

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since the Greenback has lots of stamina in it, it is more likely that this currency trading instrument would continue to go further upwards, going towards the supply level at 106. 00.  The demand level at 104. 50 is an immediate hindrance to any pullback that may occur along the way. 

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish 
The sudden loss of stamina in this cross (brought about by further weakness in the Euro) has led to a new lease of Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.   The demand zone at 136. 00 has been tested, and with further weakness of the cross, the price can go on towards another demand zone at 135. 00. 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

?Swing trading is actually one of the best trading styles for the beginning trader to get his or her feet wet, but it still offers significant profit potential for intermediate and advanced traders.  Swing traders receive sufficient feedback on their trades after a couple of days to keep them motivated, but their long and short positions of several days are of the duration that does not lead to distraction. ? ? Jason Van Bergen

466
?Our mind is our enemy. ? ? Tom Hougaard

Our mind is really our foe, especially when we find it extremely difficult to do what are in our best interest.  Doing the right things tends to make us uncomfortable initially, unless we train our mind to adapt to doing the right things until they become our second nature.   In the part one of this series, I mentioned how drivers and motorcyclists need to be forced to do what are in their best interest and the best interest of their loved ones (including members of the public).

 It?s well known that smokers are liable to die young.  A few years ago, I visited an elderly man who?s a dad to one of my friends.  He was glad to see me.  After some time, he reached for his drawer and took out a cigarette.  He lit it and started smoking.  The elderly man noticed that, by my countenance, I wasn?t happy that he was smoking.  I was concerned about his health, for he looked a bit emaciated.  Before I could speak, he said:

?Young man, I know you aren?t happy that I?m smoking, but that?s not your business.  I?d been smoking before you and your friend ? who?s my son ? were born.  I know cigar is dangerous to my health, but mind you, if my health deteriorates and I die, it?s nobody?s business.  Nicotine is thought to be poisonous; yet I buy it with my money and take it into my body.  It?s my body and my life, not your body or you dad?s body.  If I do what can affect my life, it?s nobody?s business.  It?s my life and it?s not your concern if I lose it.  I?ll smoke till I die.  Whether I smoke or not, it?s something that?ll cause my death.  Your friend, who?s my son, has accepted this fact and has stopped remonstrating with me.  I?ve told my children that if I die today, I should be buried quickly so that I don?t cause a stench in the neighborhood. ?

What does this have to do with trading? Many traders who know what can?t pay them in the markets still find those things irresistible.  This is the most important reason why most traders won?t make it.  Below, you can read 4 things that will guarantee your failure in the markets.  If you avoid those things, you success is then guaranteed. 

4 Things that will guarantee your failure in the markets
1.    Thinking that risk control isn?t very crucial: Risk control is one of the major factors that contribute to your everlasting success in the market.  If you don?t know what it is, you?d better learn it and start applying it.  If you know it already, you?d better start applying it with strict religiosity. 

2.    Thinking that you know everything: It?s unfortunate that many traders feel that they know what the price would do next.  We tend to feel we?re hot, but the markets sometimes remind us that we?re cold.  The expert traders? saving grace is that they never forget they?re students of the markets.  It?s thus helpful to trade what you see and properly manage your trades.  It?s by far more helpful to use speculation methods that have stood the test of the time historically: plus methods that make money regardless the direction of the markets. 

3.    Thinking that overtrading can bring more profits: Overtrading doesn?t improve any statistics, especially when the extant market situation isn?t favorable to your trading methodology.  Rather than doing that, you may think of temporarily suspending a certain trading approach until the market conditions become favorable to it.  The time of favorable conditions is recognized based on expertise and experience.  Another key is to make sure that there?s no reason not to trade a particular setup.  This ensures that we enter a position based on our logical entry rules only, not based on irrational emotions. 

4.    Thinking that your education and knowledge in other field can help you in trading: I know speculators who were very good at other things but who?re now grappling desperately with the markets.  Bill Gates, who?s very successful in the computer world, was recently beaten at a chess game by a chess champion.  John McAfee was successful as a software engineer and programmer, but failed as an investor.  Your expertise in one field doesn?t automatically translate into success in another field.  Someone who?s successful as a TV superstar may fail as a politician.  No matter your level of education or degree of expertise in another field, you?ll need to learn the art of successful trading.

Weigh the consequences
There are consequences for suicidal and safe trading principles, and therefore, you?d do well to weigh the consequences before you allow your mind to mislead or lead you.  Testing a method in real market conditions is more preferable and more agreeable.  When a good method doesn?t work, we patiently control our risk and wait for the time when the conditions in the market would be favorable to it again.  The easiest trading methodologies are also the most profitable.

This article is ended with the quote below:

?When I gave up trading due to frustration and losses.  I realized the markets didn?t beat me, I beat myself.  The classic Jesse Livermore line.  I firmly believe that most, if not all of trading over a longer time frame is psychological. ? ? Larry Tentarelli

467
Instrument: AUDJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: September 3, 2014
Entry price: 97.  682
Stop loss: 96.  669
Take profit: 97.  869

Instrument: AUDUSD
Order: Buy
Entry date: September 3, 2014
Entry price: 0.  93063
Stop loss: 0.  92036
Take profit: 0.  93238

Instrument: EURAUD
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 3, 2014
Entry price: 1.  41126
Stop loss: 1.  42176
Take profit: 1.  40974

Instrument: AUDCAD
Order: Buy
Entry date: September 3, 2014
Entry price: 1.  01632
Stop loss: 1.  00606
Take profit: 1.  01802

Instrument: AUDCHF
Order: Buy
Entry date: September 3, 2014
Entry price: 0.  85546
Stop loss: 0.  84511
Take profit: 0.  85711

Instrument: GBPAUD
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 3, 2014
Entry price: 1.  77108
Stop loss: 1.  78144
Take profit: 1.  76944

Instrument: AUDNZD
Order: Buy
Entry date: September 3, 2014
Entry price: 1.  11895
Stop loss: 1.  10875
Take profit: 1.  12076


NB: 1% per trade is risked.   All open trades are closed after the duration of the signals has expired.   A breakeven stop is used after a 70-pip gain and a trailing stop of 100 pips is used after a gain of 170 pips.   

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn?t be construed as trading advice.   


468
Here?s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
This pair is still currently bearish, but it is forming a base.  A base is a kind of consolidation that precedes a breakout.  With more weakness in the Euro, the price could reach the support lines at 1. 3100 and 1. 3050.  Meanwhile, any rallies along the way might be contained at the resistance lines of 1. 3250 and 1. 3300.  Any movement above the resistance line at 1. 3300 would mean the end of the bearish bias, especially when the price closes above the line.   

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
This pair is still currently bullish, but it is highly volatile.  With more strength in the USD, the price could reach the resistance levels at 0. 9200 and 0. 9250.  This is not what the bulls would find very easy to achieve, however.  Meanwhile, any pullbacks along the way might be contained at the support levels of 0. 9100 and 0. 9050.  Any movement below the support level at 0. 9050 would mean the end of the bullish bias, especially when the price closes below that level.   

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
The Cable is also forming a base ? and thus a breakout is normally expected.  This week, the market (whose bias is still logically bearish) has not gone downwards significantly.  In fact, the market has been consolidating to the upside.  The price could go further downwards, testing the accumulation territories at 1. 6550 and 1. 6500.  Possible rallies could push the price upwards to the distribution territories at 1. 6650 and 1. 6700.  Should the price close above the distribution territory at 1. 6700, it would mean a clean bullish signal. 

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency trading instrument has not been able to move upwards significantly recently.  In fact, the bears are threatening the situation, which has already become precarious.  Nevertheless, the price ought to breach the demand level at 103. 00 before the bullish bias can be rendered useless.  For the bullish bias to continue to be valid, the price needs to go further upwards, going towards the supply level at 104. 50. 

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish 
The weakness in the Euro as compared to the strength in the Yen has forced this cross to form a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.  It may be possible that the Euro would be strong somewhere else, but as long as the JPY is stronger than it, the confirmed bearish outlook may continue to hold, taking the price towards the demand zone at 136. 00   

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

?Forex offers a level playing field for a wide variety of market participants ? be it newbies or veterans, small or large accounts, full-time or part-time traders.  Forex allows you to choose what fits you best: your time of the day, your preferred holding period, your trading style, your account size and your leverage. ? - Gabriel Grammatidis

469
GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Contrary to the assumption that Gold would be bullish, its price has gone downwards significantly within the last 2 weeks.  There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and the market can continue to be weak.   There are support levels at 1275. 00 and 1265. 00, which would serve as the targets for the bears, providing that the price goes further south.  Meanwhile, the resistance levels at 1295. 00 and 1300. 00 ought to act as great barriers for any bullish rallies along the way.  Any movement above those resistance levels would mean the end of the bearish outlook and the beginning of the bullish outlook ? which would eventually happen in a foreseeable future. 


SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish 
As long as Gold is bearish, Silver would be bearish.  When Gold becomes bullish, Silver also would be pulled northwards.  Right now, Silver is bearish and the bias is very strong.  In fact, any rallies in the market proffer opportunities to sell short.  However, this bias is not going to last forever.   While more weakness can cause the price to test the demand levels at 19. 2000 and 19. 0000, the supply levels at 19. 7000 and 19. 9000 should contain any attempts by the bulls to push the price upwards.  Any movement above those supply levels would mean the end of the bearish outlook.  Currently, the market is forming a base and there should be a breakout soon.   

470
Note: All the trades below were entered on August 25, 2014.  If you?d trade the signals, they mustn?t be entered later than 7. 00 AM GMT on August 26, 2014.   

Gap trading offers unique trading opportunities when they happen on hourly charts and on many currency pairs and crosses simultaneously.  In the year 2011, there were constant gap-ups and gap-downs in the currency markets, which brought great trading opportunities.  In the year 2013, gaps were a curiosity at the open of the markets on Mondays.  The gaps that occurred at the open of the markets this week brought about some trading signals that have the potential of over 45% accuracy.  Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips.  With an RRR of 1:2, we?ve a satisfactory chance of survival. 

Only 0. 5% is risked per trade.  With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0. 1 would be used.  The trading duration is 2 weeks.  The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made.  A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained. 

Gap Signals
EURUSD = Buy
GBPUSD = Buy
USDCHF = Sell
USDJPY = Sell
USDCAD = Buy
AUDUSD = Buy
NZDUSD = Sell
EURGBP = Sell
EURCAD = Buy
GBPCHF = Sell
CADCHF = Sell
NZDCAD = Buy
AUDNZD = Buy
AUDCHF = Sell
NZDCHF = Sell

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn?t be construed as trading advice. 




471
Here?s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
This pair has been able to maintain its bearish bias.  In this kind of market, any rallies would proffer opportunities to sell short.  Therefore, the current rally may be another short-selling opportunity, provided that it does not go above the resistance line at 1. 3350.  Any movement above that resistance line would mean the end of the bearish bias.  Should the bearish journey continue, the price may reach the support line at 1. 3200.   

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
As it was expected ? at least as a mandatory condition for the continuation of the extant bullish trend on the USD/CHF ? the support level at 0. 9100 has been breached successfully.  After the breach to the upside, the price closed above that level, going further upwards.  The price needs to break the resistance level at 0. 9150 to the upside, or at least, test it, as the bullish journey continues.  Now, the support level at 0. 9100 has become a great barrier to any bearish pulls along the way.     

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
Since the middle of July 2014, the Cable has dropped by over 550 pips.  It is clear that the trend-following sellers would have made huge gains while those who go against the trend would have suffered adverse consequences.  There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the Cable, and so, long trades are not yet sensible.  A trend is not over until it is actually over.  It is possible that the price would reach the accumulation territories at 1. 6650 and 1. 6600 within the next several trading days.  However, this would not happen without challenges from the bulls.  The bullish challenges may be contained at the distribution territories at 1. 6700 and 1. 6750. 

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
There is now an established northward outlook on this currency trading instrument.  The price was able to break the demand level at 103. 00 to the upside, going towards the supply level at 104. 00.  The supply level at 104. 50 could be the target for the next week.   

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish 
The Euro is a weak currency and the Yen is also a weak currency.  But in this scenario, the Yen is weaker than the Euro; thus the current bullish breakout, which has now been sustained.  In fact, all the JPY pairs are bullish and the EUR/JPY pair is no exception.  After the supply zone at 138. 00 is tested and broken to the upside, the price may target another supply zone at 139. 00.     

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


?My good trades not only pay for my bad trades, but also put food on the table. ? ? Chris Ebert

472
?No methodology will work unless you are able to develop the proper mindset to follow it. ? ? Dave Landry

The world of trading is full of things that work and things that don?t work.  To be honest, there are many successful traders who?re also teaching people how to become successful.  There are many signals providers who provide winning signals.  There are many strategies that work and there are many programs, like webinars and trading rooms which can help other traders to improve significantly.  Unfortunately, in spite of these, the percentage of losers still remains above 90%.  Why?

There is a primary reason for that (other reasons are merely secondary).  The human mind isn?t wired to trade properly ? unless the mind is trained to adapt to the seemingly ?strange? but helpful approaches that guarantee one?s survival.  We don?t find it easy to do the things that can ensure our permanent triumph.  What we find easy to do are things that agree with our faulty mindset, but which can?t help us in the long run.  If you can?t ride your winners, it?s because your mindset is against that, and you?ll always find it difficult to do.  Even if a swing trading system has a high hit rate, it won?t make money if profits aren?t allowed to run. 

For instance, most motorists obey traffic rules because they want to avoid the legal consequences for not doing so, not because they take their own safety serious.  Why should the use of helmet be enforced for bikers? Don?t they know that the use of helmet is for their own safety? They know, but they still find it easier not to put on helmet than to put on one.  That?s human mindset. 

It?s known that making phone calls or receiving phone calls while driving is dangerous (for the brain of a driver who does that doesn?t fare better than the brain of a drunkard, at that time), yet some drivers find it a fanciful and agreeable thing to do. 

I once chattered at taxi.  While the driver was driving me, his phone began to ring consistently.  He sensed that the call was very important, and as a result of that, he located a suitable place to park.  He parked and received the call.  After that, he continued the journey.  What the man did might look stupid in the eyes of most drivers.  How could he begin to look for a place to park simply because he wanted to receive a mere call? In contrast, most drivers would prefer to answer the call while driving ? the thought of tickets being the only thing that can prevent them from doing that.   

In the world of retail trading where retail traders are allowed to trade as they like, it?s no wonder that they often end up losing.  Even if they know what they can do to safeguard their accounts in the face of the vagaries of the markets, they?re prone to ignore that because of irrational emotions.  If retail traders could be forced and micromanaged to do the right things while trading, the percentage of losers would decrease dramatically, but such a thing isn?t possible. 

For example, false breakouts are common in consolidating market phases, and trading them would have adverse effects on our portfolios if we?re invested for the long-term.  You may?ve sworn never to trade a consolidating market, but because of the faulty mindset, you suddenly open a position in a consolidating market because you feel the position is promising.  You?ve sworn to respect your stops, but you suddenly see yourself running a gargantuan negative position.  Obviously, you?ve refused to smooth the position because you feel it may go back to the entry price. 

When institutional traders cover their positions, the market pulls back, but the noobs think they can follow the direction of the pullback.   When you see a significant bias that occurs without plausible economic reasons, the bias can be transitory and the pullback might even be a new protracted market outlook.  You?ve sworn to be a swing trader or position trader, opening a few trades per month or week, but you suddenly start scalping or opening too many positions that you close within 24 hours because of too much negativity.  You call yourself a position trader or an investor, but you suddenly find yourself watching the one-minute chart because you can?t sleep while you?ve open positions.  You know, a position trader got nothing to do with one-minute charts.  You think new significant biases may start and you want to be an early bird by looking at one-minute charts. 

You?re swing/position trader, and thus you need to use wide stops so that you can create more room for normal market fluctuations.  But you find yourself using stops that are too tight: you don?t want to allow a trade to move against you by a few or several pips and you call yourself a position trader! Tights stops cause frequent losses ? even trades that ought to end up winning would be stopped out if the stops are too tight. 

Doing the right things require discipline, even if it makes you look stupid sometimes.  You?ve got to find a way to condition your mind to do the right things; no matter what.  That?s what pays in the long run.  It?s better to look for ways to control losing streaks than to look for ?wise? trading rules that don?t improve any statistics.  This is what?ll ultimately help you by making you avoid severe roll-downs.  It?s after you survive severe roll-downs that you can hope to make some gains.   

This article is ended with the quote below:

?One thing is sure: a trading strategy that is not adapted to the traders individual preferences concerning philosophy, trading frequency or time exposure will not generate profits simply because it will not be followed. ? ? David Pieper

473
Here?s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
This pair has continued to be weak, though the southward movement has been limited so far.  In fact, there is a constant struggle between the bull and the bear, which has resulted in a high volatility.  The resistance line at 1. 3400 has been battered a few times (bearing the brunt of the struggle in the market).  While the possibility of a serious rally holds, the pair could still go further downwards, reaching the strong support line at 1. 3300.  In the meantime, a stronger bearish bias is needed to break the tough support line at 1. 3350 to the downside.   

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
On the USDCHF, there is a great support level at 0. 9000 and a formidable resistance level at 0. 9100.  The price presently hovers between the two market levels, while the resistance level at 0. 9100 faces more challenge from the buyers.  This resistance level was tested several times between August 5 and 7, 2014: it was also tested this week.  The price is supposed to go upwards again to test the resistance level.  The resistance level ought to be broken to the upside as the bullish trend continues.  On the other hand, a movement below the support level at 0. 9000 would mean the end of the bullish outlook.     

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
This currency trading instrument is weak, and the weakness has started since the middle of July 2014.  The price has dropped by about 500 pips since then.  This week alone, the price has dropped by over 100 pips.  There could be another movement to the downside, which could take the price towards the accumulation territories at 1. 6650 and 1. 6600.  Any rallies in the price should be short-term: they should be contained at the distribution territories at 1. 6800 and 1. 6850.   

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since the JPY is weaker than the USD, it is not a surprise that this pair has been going upwards in a slow and steady manner.  In fact, there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and the price could go on towards the supply level at 103. 00 within the next several trading days. 

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish 
The bearish outlook on this cross is now under a threat - any journey above the supply zone at 137. 50 would mean the beginning of a new bullish outlook and the end of the current bearish outlook.  But as long as the price cannot break the aforementioned supply zone to the upside, the bearish bias would be rational.   

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

?Cut short your losses; let your profits run on. ? ? David Ricardo (1772 - 1823) 

474
?Markets change continuously.  Therefore, I am constantly searching for trading setups that may improve my trading. ? ? Christian Lukas

One of the most important aspects of a strategy is its accuracy percentage.  High accuracy is more preferable than low accuracy, although it must be coupled with positive expectancy.  A trader whose strategy is only 25% accurate can end up winning if she/he uses an RRR of 1:5, small sizes and run their profits.  This is something that requires maturity and patience.  On the other hand, a trader whose strategy is 75%+ accuracy can end up blowing his portfolio when she/he uses a worse expectancy like risking $20 to gain $2, doesn?t use stops, runs losses indefinitely and uses big sizes. 

Having said this, why would most traders still find trading so challenging despite the fact that they use stops and optimal lot sizes? The answers are not far-fetched. 

You need to know that the position sizes for huge portfolios aren?t the same as the position sizes for small portfolios.  Traders who speculate on small accounts would be frustrated when they try to follow the trend.  Trend-following is good, but it requires patience, discipline and ability to handle long losing periods.  That?s why it?s better done on huge portfolios.  The overall accuracy of strategies that follow the line of the least resistance is so low, especially now that false breakouts are no longer a curiosity and sustained trending moves are rather rare.  Such are today?s markets.   

The retail trader finds it difficult to increase their portfolio balance because they use strategies that have low accuracy in most cases.  One way to drastically reduce the difficulty is to look for ways to increase your strategy accuracy.  Accuracy of 40-50% is certainly better than an accuracy of 25-35%. 

This is a fact of trading: When your accuracy is high, it would be easier for you to recover your losses and move ahead.  When your accuracy is low, recovery of losses would be more difficult.  The wider a take profit level is, as compared to a stop loss level, the more difficult it would be for the take profit level to be hit.    The tighter a take profit level is, as compared to a stop loss level, the easier it would be for the take profit level to be hit.   A tighter take profit level makes sense when strategy accuracy is high, because the stop loss level would even be tighter and the positive expectancy incorporated into the system would be rational.   

This is another fact: The higher the accuracy of a system, the less frequent and the more fleeting its losing periods would be.  The lower the accuracy of a system, the more frequent and the more protracted its losing periods would be.  A trading method whose accuracy is 30% will usually lose more than 20 trades in a row when a losing period materializes; whereas a trading method whose accuracy is about 50% will usually lose less than 15 trades when a losing period materializes.  The higher the accuracy, the fewer the losses in a losing period. 

We tend to gain money in markets, but we give some of it back during a losing period.  Someone says it?s not easy to keep money that?s made from the markets.  By letting profits run and hoping for a target to be hit, we sometimes end giving back some of our profits, but we want to give back as little as possible.  We do this by using small lot sizes, increasing our accuracy, using a rational RRR that?s commensurate with the rate of accuracy, and temporarily stop trading after a weekly or monthly drawdown limit has been reached. 

Conclusion: The retail trader would do well to look for a strategy that has a higher accuracy, so that the trading experience can be easier and losing periods reduced and more short-lived.  Please learn from your past mistakes and adjust your trading style accordingly.  When a good football team gets defeated, they learn a lesson.  When they win, they also learn a lesson.  This is one of the factors that improve their performances in spite of recent failures.  This is also true of trading.

This article is ended with the quote below:

?I have traded now for 13 years and I still have yet to have a year where my winning percentage is over 50 per cent.  I posted a 100 trade experiment in 2008 where my win/loss was 48. 32 per cent yet the account grew 57. 47 per cent. ? ? Adam Jowett

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