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Messages - CarlosR

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The Pound (GBP) has made a small advance against the Turkish Lira (TRY) today, after a major Turkish vote and before a UK economic report comes out.

This latter document, the Bank of England (BoE) financial stability report, might have a significant positive impact on the GBP/TRY exchange rate on Wednesday.
The report has two purposes, as in addition to looking at the state of the UK economy at present, it also offers a forecast on what could affect the country in the future.

The report will likely be considered in the context of last week?s BoE interest rate decision, where policymaker Andy Haldane surprisingly backed an interest rate hike.

Mr Haldane?s decision led economists to predict that an August interest rate hike could now be on the way.

With that in mind, if the BoE report suggests that the UK economy could strengthen in the coming months then Pound Sterling could rise sharply against the Lira.

Confirmation of UK GDP Slowdown could Cause GBP/TRY Exchange Rate Losses
Later on this week, there is a risk of Pound Sterling (GBP) losing ground to the Turkish Lira (TRY) on Friday when UK Q1 GDP stats will come out.

These finalised figures are predicted to confirm that UK GDP growth slowed in the first quarter of 2018, showing a shaky start to the year.

As well as a pair of snowstorms battering the UK over February and March, UK economic growth was also hindered by fears about how Brexit talks would develop.

The finalised reading is expected to confirm what many GBP traders have already been thinking, but could still be enough to cause a GBP/TRY exchange rate decline.

Turkish Lira to Pound (TRY/GBP) Exchange Rate Losses Forecast on Trade Deficit Expansion
On the other side of the currency pairing, the Turkish Lira to Pound Sterling (TRY/GBP) exchange rate could be affected in the near-term by trade balance data out on Friday.

The measurement of Turkish trade in May is predicted to show a widening of the already substantial deficit of -6. 69bn, to a new figure of -7. 4bn.

Turkey has held a sizable trade deficit for over a decade, but a worsening of the deficit reading might still cause a drop in trader confidence and devalue the TRY.

Are TRY/GBP Exchange Rate Gains ahead on Higher Manufacturing PMI?
Looking beyond Friday?s Turkish trade balance data, the Turkish Lira could also be affected by a manufacturing sector PMI reading out on 2nd July.

This measure of manufacturing sector activity is tipped to show a significant recovery in the manufacturing sector during June, with a shift from 46. 4 points to 53. 4.
You can see the convert to gbp lira exchange rate
https://alpari. com/en/analytics/currency/converter/GBP-TRY/?sum=1

STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / Re: Economic News
« on: June 28, 2018, 05:38:41 AM »
While there haven?t been any major developments in the last 24 hours, nothing we?ve heard recently fills investors with any confidence that we?re going to see a de-escalation any time soon.  With tariffs already being implemented and US President Donald Trump promising more in retaliation against the European Union and China, it seems the situation is going to get much worse before it improves.

As it stands, it?s difficult to determine just what impact recent events will have on the economies of those involved, not to mention just how much worse the situation is going to get.  What?s clear though is that it?s weighing heavily on risk appetite and if Trump keeps doubling down on his threats against the US trade partners, it could seriously take its toll.  Given how closely Trump watches the markets, it will be interesting to see whether he changes his approach if the recent declines continue.
You can used to convert euro to cad now

USD rallying as risk aversion drives safe havens higher

The dollar is continuing to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the safe haven shift, with US 10-Year Treasury yields creeping back below 2. 9%.  The greenback had pared its gains over the last week but it appears to be back on the ascent, with the euro having run into resistance around 1. 17 against it.  The pair has run into significant support around 1. 15 on a couple of occasions over the last month, so could be a decent test of it should we slip back to those levels again.

See convert to https://alpari. com/en/analytics/currency/converter/EUR-CAD/?sum=1

You can know how much 1 dollar to swiss franc right now then go to https://alpari. com/en/analytics/currency/converter/USD-CHF/?sum=1

Interesting analysis about yen and euro it very exactly.   thanks 
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STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / Norway Economic Growth activity
« on: May 23, 2018, 09:14:27 PM »
Recently released data points to an economy gaining traction this year, following a subdued performance in Q4 2017 due to a drop in output from the oil and gas sectors.   Industrial production maintained a healthy pace of expansion in January?February, supported by a resilient electricity, gas and steam sector.   Additionally, business sentiment in the manufacturing industry remained upbeat for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q1, signaling strong output and employment growth in the months ahead.   Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dipped to an over three-year low in February.   It has hovered at 4.  0% in recent months which, coupled with low inflation, is boding well for consumers? purchasing power.   A tight labor market is also upping pressure on wages, as evidenced recently by private-sector unions brokering a tentative deal on 8 April for a 2.  8% pay raise for 2018, up from 2.  3% last year. 

Norway Economic Growth
Economic activity is expected to pick up this year, driven by healthy external conditions that should prompt higher demand for exports, particularly oil and gas.   The mainland economy, however, could be weighed down by falling house prices and softening residential investment.   Consensus Forecast panelists expect total GDP to expand 2.  0% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month?s forecast, and 2.  0% again in 2019.   Mainland GDP is expected to grow 2.  3% in 2018, which is up 0.  1 percentage points from last month, and 2.  2% in 2019. 
Right now dkk usd rate is 0.  1582, very nice

EURCHF Bulls more in control above the MA lines

That move took the price to the highest level since January 24th. 

The move higher has stalled and settled in a range since March 7th.  The downside extreme comes in at 1. 1673.  The high extreme area comes in at 1. 17399-478.

In between sits a cluster of MAs.

  • The 100 bar MA on the 4-hour comes in at 1. 1696
    The 200 hour MA comes in at 1. 17019
    The 200 hour MA on the 4-hour comes in at 1. 17063
    The 100 hour MA comes in at 1. 17109.
    So the 1. 1696 to 1. 17109 area is a risk area for the pair.   Stay above it is more bullish.  Move below and the bears start to take back more control.

On a break, the bias tilts more to the downside but be aware the 1. 16732 is another key level to get to and through.   Nevertheless, it will switch the bias - in the short term - to the bearish side.
See to convert this pair in https://alpari. com/en/analytics/currency/converter/EUR-CHF/

EUR/NOK still a sell on rallies ? Danske Bank
We still see EUR/NOK as vulnerable to the topside on the back of a thin NOK calendar, Easter coming up and technicals paving a setup for profit taking?.

Also, we still think the global environment could be challenging for the NOK in the weeks to come amid the global cycle losing further momentum and the risk of trade wars looming.

Last Friday, we took profit on our short EUR/NOK position.  Our fundamental predisposition remains to re-enter a short position on spikes being higher but for now, we prefer to stay sidelined, awaiting better entry levels.
You can use to convert about this pair in https://alpari. com/en/analytics/currency/converter/EUR-NOK/

The pair failed on a break to multi year highs this week and fell below trend lines/MA
The EURCAD is showing signs of a bearish crack lower.

What does that look like?

Looking at the daily chart above, the price this week moved to the highest level since July 2009.  The high price reached 1. 61506.  That high surpassed the March 7th high that reached 1. 6121.  That high broke the high going all the way back to January 2015 at 1. 61059. 

Well this week's break (and highest high since July 2009) failed.   That is bearish.

Another negative/bearish look comes from the 4-hour chart.   Looking at that chart, the fall this week has moved below trend lines and the 100 hour MA at 1. 59499 level (blue line in the chart below).  That gives the pair a little more bear as well.
You can use the convert this pair in https://alpari. com/en/analytics/currency/converter/EUR-CAD/

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars finished mixed last week with the Aussie showing weakness and the Kiwi closing higher.

The AUD/USD settled at . 7694, down 0. 0016 or -0. 21% and the NZD/USD closed the week at . 7231, up 0. 0020 or +0. 28%.


In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes showed the central bank is not in a hurry to raise interest rates due to concerns over housing, consumer credit and low wages.

The Australian Employment Change showed the economy added 17. 5K jobs in February, below the 19. 8K estimate.  The previous month?s figure was revised down to 12. 5K.  The Unemployment Rate rose 5. 6%, above the 5. 5% estimate.


In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its Official Cash Rate unchanged at the record low of 1. 75 percent for the ninth straight meeting, as widely expected, saying modest interest rates would help spur economic growth.

The only difference between Wednesday?s RBNZ statement and the previous one was that it dropped any reference to the New Zealand Dollar in the latest one, probably because the NZD has been relatively stable.

In summary, the RBNZ presented an optimistic tone on the global economy but noted that international pressures are beginning to build and developed world monetary policies are becoming less stimulatory.

?CPI inflation is expected to weaken further in the near term due to softness in food and energy prices and adjustments to government charges?Over the medium term, CPI inflation is forecast to trend upwards towards the midpoint of the target range.  Longer-term inflation expectations are well anchored at 2 percent,? the RBNZ said, in its statement.

U. S.  News
In the U. S. , the Federal Reserve raised rates for the sixth time since the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began hiking rates off near-zero in December 2015.  The widely expected move put the benchmark funds rate at a target of 1. 5 percent to 1. 75 percent.

The Fed also upgraded its economic forecast, and dropped hints that the path of rate hikes could be more aggressive.  The market currently expects three hikes for 2018, and that remained the baseline forecast, but at least one more increase was added in the following two years.  The fact that traders were pricing in a 38-percent chance of four rates hikes probably led to dollar weakness.

Fed officials raised their forecast for 2018 GDP growth from 2. 5 percent in December to 2. 7 percent, and increased the 2019 expectation from 2. 1 percent to 2. 4 percent.

Inflation expectations changed little.  The 2018 forecast remains just 1. 9 percent for both core and headline inflation.

In other news, President Donald Trump signed an executive memorandum on March 22 that would impose retaliatory tariffs on up to $60 billion in Chinese imports.

The new measures are designed to penalize China for trade practices that the Trump Administration says involve stealing American companies? intellectual property.

The U. S.  Dollar weakened on the fear that China is likely to retaliate against the tariffs by targeting U. S.  agricultural products that are reliant on the Chinese export market.

The pair has been oversold. Strong Divergence in play
We may re-test the 21-MA then up or get in now and put yr stop losses below 21-MA

You can use the convert in https://alpari. com/en/analytics/currency/converter/AUD-NOK/

Three central-bank rate decisions and a long list of important data were completely overshadowed by trade tensions this past week.  Nothing mattered more than the U. S. ? tariffs on Chinese imports and China?s retaliatory measures.  The world?s two largest economies are officially in a trade war and they have the power to do serious damage to the each other?s economy.  No one wins in a trade war but President Trump?s dangerous gamble made the U. S.  dollar the least attractive currency.  The greenback sold off across the board past week as investors bailed out of U. S.  assets.  Although the selling pressures eased on Friday as China responded with only $3 billion worth of tariffs in 2 stages (depending on negotiations with Washington) against the U. S. ? $50 billion, odds are that President Trump won?t back down and China will need to follow up with stronger measures.

Both euro and sterling rallied against the dollar on Friday.  Some traders may be surprised by the tight consolidation in EUR/USD despite all of the big stories and important economic reports.  On one hand, the euro?s gains were restrained by the European Central Bank?s dovishness and economic data ? ranging from the PMIs to ZEW and the German IFO reports ? showed deterioration from the previous month.  On the other hand, the U. S.  dollar is under pressure from trade tensions.  These counteractive factors has made it difficult for EUR/USD to rally but We used to currency rate calculator,  if the trade war intensifies, EUR/USD will break higher as it settles near the top of its range.  Eurozone confidence, German inflation and unemployment numbers are scheduled for release and we are looking for softer readings all around.  Sterling on the other hand finally woke up to hawkish 7-2 BoE vote on Thursday and the stronger-than-expected consumer spending and wage data.  Although sterling is vulnerable to profit taking because it is overextended against the euro, Swiss franc and commodity currencies, in the long run, we expect the currency to outperform as the BoE should be the next major central bank to raise interest rates.

https://alpari. com/en/analytics/currency/converter/

STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / Re: Surprising ways to make money on Forex
« on: February 13, 2018, 05:41:40 PM »
Another good way to make money without demo forex trading contest where you participate with your accounts demos as: https://alpari. com/en/contest/

Currently, we are at 1.   3862 and starting a push to the downside.    If we breakout of the bear flag, we're initially looking for a continuation to the 0.   500 at 1.   3702 and a possible bounce there.    This is also the lower channel from a day chart up-move.    The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 176 pips.   

See more at https://alpari.   com/en/analytics/reviews/market_sessions/

STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / The Future Of Bitcoin
« on: February 12, 2018, 06:46:14 PM »
Once a scarce asset available to a tiny community of miners and enthusiasts now has become one of the most favourite subjects at the dinner table and social media.  Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are 21st-century investment representing the accessibility of information ensured by the digital age and technologies.  While it is still a controversial question whether Bitcoin is an investment or speculation, it is clear that the price of this asset is extremely volatile.  Certain factors clearly have an impact on the price of Bitcoin, such as regulations and attacks; other factors are there to be discovered.

The Bitcoin price is a practical indicator of Bitcoin?s real-world value, relative to other assets and currencies.  While many factors affect the Bitcoin price in varying periods, user base, developer activity, and global adoption have been the three key factors behind the long-term increase in the price of Bitcoin for the past eight years.

As an increasing number of users start to use Bitcoin, the demand for the cryptocurrency and speculation around the cryptocurrency market will further rise at a rapid rate.  It is reported that 26 years from now if the user base of Bitcoin continues to grow at this pace, nearly everyone in the world will use Bitcoin. 

Analyst forecasts
Not only cryptocurrency enthusiasts have boosted the popularity of Bitcoin.  There are numerous analysts forecasting mind-blowing value for Bitcoin and extreme profits for those holding them:

  • Bitcoin will hit USD100,000 in 10 years with 10% of USD5 trillion average daily volume in the foreign exchange and USD1. 75 trillion market capitalization.  /Key Van-Petersen from Saxo Bank;
    Bitcoin will hit USD100,000 in 2021 according to Moore?s Law (golden rule of digital technology);
    Bitcoin will reach USD5 trillion market cap in next 10 years /Aaron Lasher, Breadwallet.
See more in https://alpari. com/en/analytics/technical_analysis/trading_central/

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STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / EURUSD: consolidating around the balance line
« on: February 07, 2018, 03:19:35 PM »
On Tuesday the 6th of February, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed slightly up.    The euro dropped to 1.   2315 before recovering to 1.   2404 (+89).    Turmoil on the US stock market subsided to help euro bulls recover their losses.    At the end of the day, the indices closed between 1.   7% and 2.   3% up.   

My expectations of a drop to the 135th degree came off perfectly.    Now we turn our attention towards today?s session.   

In my intraday forecast for the week running from the 5th to the 9th of February, I?ve got a phase of growth starting on Thursday.    Since the low on this model has been reached, today we should see a reversal form.   

Still, we shouldn?t rule out the possibility of returning to 1.   2340.    With reversals, we can often see rather deep corrections.    Moreover, the dollar is getting an extra boost from the growth in US 10Y bond yields.   

Meanwhile, the fact that the political parties in Germany still haven?t managed to form a government is weighing down on the euro.    Talks were supposed to come to an end on Monday, but didn?t.    The parties are struggling to find a compromise.   

In my forecast, I?m expecting a drop to 1.   2365.    The 45th degree is sitting at 1.   2348.    Since we have a mixed picture on the euro crosses, I?m allowing for the possibility of a drop to here.    Buyers left a long tail on the daily candlestick.    Since the session high was reached before the low, my forecast is predicting a breakout of the trend line, followed by a jump to 1.   2426.   
I?m not entertaining the idea of the euro going any higher than the 90th degree today given that the phase of growth isn?t supposed to start until Thursday.   
Source: https://alpari. com/en/analytics/reviews/

In my forex trading signals they forecast, I?m expecting a drop to 1.  2365.   Since we have a mixed picture on the euro crosses, I?m allowing for the possibility of a drop to here.   Buyers left a long tail on the daily candlestick.   Since the session high was reached before the low, my forecast is predicting a breakout of the trend line, followed by a jump to 1.  2426. 
See more https://alpari. com/en/analytics/reviews/

While growth in the two Asian-Pacific economies has picked up some steam, a sharp appreciation in the exchange rate threatens to depress growth and dampen already subdued inflationary pressures.  The aussie gained just over 8% versus its US counterpart in 2017 and is up a further 2. 5% so far in 2018.  The kiwi rose by a more modest 2% last year but has rallied almost 4% in January.

Both the RBA and RBNZ could toughen their language on the exchange rate in their upcoming meetings on February 6 (Tuesday) and 8 (Thursday) respectively.  However, investors are likely to ignore such comments if the central banks also raise their outlooks on the economy as this would bring forward expectations about the timing of a rate increase.  Based on recent data, the RBNZ is more likely to strike an upbeat tone, while the RBA could sound more cautious.

STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / Re: How To Get Cheap Forex From Your Bank
« on: January 08, 2018, 04:41:57 AM »
Thanks for your information it is very nice for me.  Glad to see you

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