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STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / Tifia Daily Market Analytics
« on: March 14, 2017, 09:05:05 AM »
Hello!
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EUR/USD: Fed meeting
03/20/2019

The dollar retains mainly the position before the publication at 18:00 (GMT) of the decision on the interest rate of the Fed.    On Wednesday, futures for the dollar index DXY, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, is trading near 95.   93, down 66 points from the closing price last Friday, but up 10 points from the closing price on Tuesday.   
Market participants do not expect changes in monetary policy at this Fed meeting, which will end on Wednesday with the publication of a rate decision and a press conference.    Its beginning is scheduled for 18:30 (GMT).   
Probably, the Fed will again declare patience, as well as lower forecasts for interest rates and US economic growth.    It is possible that the leaders of the Fed will declare that the key rate has reached its peak.    To restore funding for the US economy from abroad, the dollar must weaken.   
Earlier, US President Donald Trump also repeatedly criticized the Fed’s monetary policy against the backdrop of low inflation in the country.   
Nevertheless, the demand for the dollar may remain in the medium and long term against the backdrop of international trade wars, regardless of the actions of the Fed.    The US economy still looks more stable than other major global economies.   
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.   com/analytics

On Wednesday, the EUR / USD is trying to develop an upward trend above the support level of 1.   1332 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).    Below this level, downward dynamics prevail.    The breakdown of the support level of 1.   1313 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal to resume sales.   
The targets for the decline after the breakdown of the support level of 1.   1285 (the Fibonacci level of 23.   6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.   3900 that began in May 2014) will be the support levels of 1.   1185, 1.   1120, 1.   1000.   
The long-term bearish trend, which began in May 2014 near the 1.   3870 mark, remains.   
Short positions are preferred.   
Long positions will become relevant after EUR / USD is fixed in the zone above the local resistance level of 1.   1350.   
Support Levels: 1.   1332, 1.   1313, 1.   1300, 1.   1285, 1.   1260, 1.   1225, 1.   1185, 1.   1120, 1.   1000
Resistance Levels: 1.   1350, 1.   1400, 1.   1430, 1.   1480

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.   1330.    Stop-Loss 1.   1365.    Take-Profit 1.   1313, 1.   1300, 1.   1285, 1.   1260, 1.   1225, 1.   1185, 1.   1120
Buy Stop 1.   1365.    Stop-Loss 1.   1330.    Take-Profit 1.   1400, 1.   1430, 1.   1480

 

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.   com


Post Merge: March 21, 2019, 01:24:24 PM
GBP/USD: anxiety is growing in the markets
03/21/2019

On Thursday, the dollar is rising, recovering from a strong fall on Wednesday.   DXY dollar index futures at the beginning of the American session on Thursday traded near the level of 95.  67, 32 points higher than the opening price of today. 
Meanwhile, the Bank of England and the National Bank of Switzerland also retained their monetary policy unchanged.   The decision of the SNB was published on Thursday at 08:30 GMT, and of the Bank of England at 12:00.   The Swiss National Bank left the deposit rate at -0.  75%, where it has been located since January 2015.   It also left a three-month LIBOR rate in the range from -1.  25% to -0.  25%. 
It is worth paying attention to the statement of the SNB, made by it after the meeting.   The statement says that this decision and the decline in economic forecasts "is mainly due to the deterioration of the prospects for economic growth and inflation abroad, as well as the associated decrease in expectations regarding the interest rates of key economic regions". 
The Bank of England also predictably retained its monetary policy unchanged.   The decision was made by all 9 votes of members of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).   The bank’s statement says that “the outlook for the economy depends on how the UK leaves the EU”. 
The pound almost did not respond to the decision of the Bank of England. 
At the same time, anxiety is growing in the markets.   Usually, the decision of the central bank of the United States, similar to the one adopted on Wednesday, would provoke growth in the stock markets, but this time the indices rose briefly and fell again.   The yield on US government bonds reached 2.  52%, the lowest level in a year, and the disappearing difference between long-term and short-term bonds indicates an increased likelihood of recession. 
And yet, the demand for the dollar may remain in the situation of international trade wars and a slowdown in the global economy, regardless of the actions of the Fed.   The US economy looks more stable than other major global economies. 
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.  com/analytics

At the same time, the negative dynamics in the GBP / USD pair is growing due to renewed uncertainty about Brexit. 
In case of breakdown of the support level of 1.  3050 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the targets for further reduction will be the support levels of 1.  2970, 1.  2800, 1.  2660, 1.  2600. 
In the alternative scenario, and after returning to the zone above the resistance level of 1.  3210 (Fibonacci 23.  6% of the correction to the decline of GBP / USD in the wave that started in July 2014 near 1.  7200), the GBP / USD growth will resume with targets at the resistance levels of 1.  3400 ( the upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 1.  3660 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart). 
Short positions in the current situation looks preferable. 
Support Levels: 1.  3112, 1.  3050, 1.  2970, 1.  2800, 1.  2700, 1.  2660, 1.  2600
Resistance Levels: 1.  3210, 1.  3310, 1.  3370, 1.  3400, 1.  3660

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1.  3090.   Stop Loss 1.  3190.   Take-Profit 1.  3050, 1.  2970, 1.  2800, 1.  2700, 1.  2660, 1.  2590, 1.  2480
Buy Stop 1.  3190.   Stop Loss 1.  3090.   Take-Profit 1.  3210, 1.  3310, 1.  3370, 1.  3400, 1.  3660



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.  com


Post Merge: March 22, 2019, 01:42:07 PM
USD/CHF: Swiss National Bank did not change monetary policy
03/22/2019
Current dynamics

On Thursday, a regular meeting of the Swiss National Bank took place, at which the bank maintained its monetary policy unchanged.  The Swiss National Bank left the deposit rate at -0. 75%, where it has been located since January 2015.  It also left a three-month LIBOR rate in the range from -1. 25% to -0. 25%.
The bank’s statement said that this decision and the decline in economic forecasts “was mainly due to the deterioration of the prospects for economic growth and inflation abroad, as well as the associated decrease in expectations regarding interest rates in key economic regions”.
This statement was partly confirmed on Friday, when the weak, much worse than forecast, macro data came out, indicating an acceleration of the slowdown of the European economy.
The Swiss franc reacted with restraint to the decision of the NBS, which traditionally considers the franc to be overbought, which does not allow for a more active increase in the growth rate of the Swiss economy.  GDP in the 4th quarter grew by only 1. 4%, as recently reported in the government of the country.
The economic barometer KOF in February fell by 3. 8 points and amounted to 92. 4, continuing to decline from the long-term average of 100.  Since September last year, the index has lost 10 points.  "We can expect that the Swiss economy will show weakness in the coming months", said the KOF Economic Research Agency report.
Most likely, the interest rate of the NBS will not change in the near future.
Soft monetary policy of the central bank usually contributes to keeping the national currency rate low.  Nevertheless, the franc maintains stability in the foreign exchange market, receiving support from franc buyers, who traditionally use it as a protective asset during periods of heightened turbulence in financial markets and the uncertainty of the political situation in the world.
Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened significantly over the past two days after falling on Wednesday, when the Fed unexpectedly announced its propensity for a softer monetary policy.
At the beginning of the European session on Friday, DXY dollar index futures traded near the 96. 20 mark, 103 points higher than the minimum reached on Wednesday.
From the news for today we are waiting for the publication (at 13:45 GMT) of the PMI indices from Markit Economics for the USA.  The preliminary manufacturing PMI index is expected to be 53. 6 in March (against 53. 0 in February), while the composite PMI index is expected to be 55. 2 against 55. 5 in February.
Data worse than forecasts can trigger a fall in the dollar and the closure of long positions on it at the end of the week.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia. com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
At the beginning of the European session, the USD / CHF is trading near the level of 0. 9945, through which the strong resistance level (EMA144 on the daily chart) passes.
The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts turned to long positions.
In the case of the breakdown of the resistance level of 0. 9945, the growth of USD / CHF will continue, and the positive dynamics will again increase.
In the case of a confirmed breakdown of the key support level of 0. 9920 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 50% of the upward correction to the last wave of decline since November 2018 and from 1. 0130), the negative dynamics will increase.  A break of this level will increase the risks of breaking the USD / CHF uptrend.
  Support Levels: 0. 9920, 0. 9875, 0. 9815, 0. 9785, 0. 9745, 0. 9720
Resistance Levels: 0. 9945, 0. 9970, 0. 9990, 1. 0005, 1. 0050, 1. 0090, 1. 0130, 1. 0160

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0. 9910.  Stop Loss 0. 9955.  Take-Profit 0. 9875, 0. 9800, 0. 9780, 0. 9745, 0. 9720
Buy Stop 0. 9950.  Stop Loss 0. 9910.  Take-Profit 0. 9990, 1. 0005, 1. 0050, 1. 0090, 1. 0130, 1. 0160

 


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia. com

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