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Topics - Forex

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STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / USD Declined on the Minutes of Meeting
« on: February 17, 2011, 10:23:21 AM »
The American economic data almost was the same as expectation, which supported that American economy had been recovering continuously recently.  The minutes of the meeting released by Federal Reserve on January showed that the officials in FED increased their confidence on the prospect of US economy.  However, the officials still dissatisfied with the slow growth of non-farm unemployment.  They predicted that American GDP would increase by 3. 4%-3. 9% in 2011.

The minutes of meeting didn?t mention whether Federal Reserve would finish the second round of Quantitative Easing policy in advance, which meant that FED would continue to buy bonds and release liquidity.
The forex rate of US dollar versus non-US currencies went down after the minutes of meeting was released.

The forex rate of US dollar against Euro went down on Feb. 15,2011 after the report that American retail sales was worse than expectation.  At the same time, Euro got support as German Investor Confidence Index has been risen for the fourth consecutive month.

The data from Commerce Department showed that American retail sales increased by 0. 3% on January, which was the smallest increase since last June. 

In addition, ZEW showed that German Investor Confidence Index increased from 15. 4 to 15. 7 on February. 

STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / The Fourth-Quarter GDP in Germany
« on: February 15, 2011, 09:40:55 AM »
Destatis announced on Feb. 15,2011 that German fourth-quarter economic growth was still strong in 2010 as the international business developed steadily.

According to the record, German fourth-quarter GDP increased by 0. 4% than last quarter, which was less than the expectation of 0. 5%.

The net export was the main driver for the economic growth.  In addition, Germany GDP was increased by fixed investment and domestic consumption.

STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / EUR/USD Would Drop on Risk Aversion
« on: February 14, 2011, 09:55:08 AM »
The forex rate of US dollar against non-US currencies went up as US dollar index rose  and Euro weakened on debt crisis.  It was predicted that Euro would continue to drop this week.

The analyst pointed out that social situation in Egypt had not been stable completely.  At the same time, the economy in Egypt would have huge uncertainty after its politics was stable.  Then USD rose on risk aversion.

Great Britain pound went down after PPI was issued.  The analyst predicted that GBP would continue to drop as British government took fiscal austerity and its economic growth was uncertainty.

Bank of England predicted that GBP/USD would increase to 1. 5300 in one month, and GBP/USD might rise to 1. 4700 in three months.

Korean won went down sharply in the Asian forex market today as Bank of Korea made a determination that it would keep interest rate unchanged.  Meanwhile, Korean won weakened as foreign investors sold a lot of Korean bonds.

The forex rate of US dollar against Korean won traded at 1,128. 60 won today, which increased 11. 60 won.  Japanese yen versus Korean won was 13. 5178 won, which declined 0. 0101 won.

Bank of Korea kept interest rate unchanged at 2. 75%, though Korean government required to reduce the inflationary pressure.

Bank of Korea predicted that GDP in Korea would increase by 4. 5% in 2011.  Moreover, Kim Choong-soo, president from Bank of Korea, said that its economic growth might much more than expectation.

USD versus Japanese yen trade near to 82. 25 yen yesterday(Jan. 9,2011).  US dollar index went down to the intraday low of 77. 63.  Bernanke, president of Federal Reserve, said that US unemployment rate was still high though the non-farm unemployment rate decreased obviously on December.  The analysts pointed out that Federal Reserve might keep monetary policy unchanged recently.

Great Britain pound against US dollar went down in the forex market as British trade deficit expanded unexpectedly and forex investors increased their expectation for the rising of interest rate by Bank of England.  At the same time, European stock market and American stock market declined narrowly.  The investors increased their demand for GBP. GBP/USD traded at 1. 6091/95 as of 9:44 Beijing time today.

STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / US Dollar Weakened on This Week
« on: January 29, 2011, 10:26:30 AM »
The US dollar index continued to decline to 77 basis points on this week. 

The forex rate of US dollar against Euro dropped from 1. 36 dollars to 1. 37 dollars.  The rising of Euro was very strong, which reached to the two-month record high level.  The forex price of US dollar against Japanese yen was in the consolidation range of 82 yen.  USD versus Great Britain pound traded near to 1. 59 dollars, which was very stable.  USD/CHF traded at 0. 94; USD/CAD was 0. 99 dollars.  AUD/USD might go up in the forex marke.  The forex rate of USD versus New Zealand dollar traded at 0. 76 dollars in the forex market.

STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / Bank of Thailand Would Raise Interest Rate
« on: January 27, 2011, 08:05:01 AM »
The official from the Bank of Thailand said on Jan. 26, 2011 that the bank would raise interest rate gradually in the near future to restrain inflation. 

Bank of Thailand raised interest rate 25 basis points to 2. 25% on Jan. 12, 2011.  The interest rate totally increased 75 basis points in 2010.

According to the report, Consumer Price Index in Thailand rose by 3% on December in 2010 and the core CPI increased by 1. 4%, which was the biggest increase in 21 months.

Analyst pointed out that the negative interest rate was bad for the nation's economy.  The inflation in Thailand would become serious as its monetary policy was too loose.  Analyst also predicted that the rapid of economic growth in Thailand would increase to 3%-5% this year.

The analysts predicted that the Reserve Bank of India would raise interest rate 25 basic points today.  Then the Indian interest rate would increase to 6. 5%. 

The Bank of India had raised interest rate six times to restrain inflation last year, which totally increased 150 basic points.  Indian inflation rate reached to 8. 43% on December in 2010, which hit the ten-month record high level.

Indian monetary authorities said that they would try to restrain inflation.

US Federal Reserve would have a meeting on interest rate on Jan. 25,2011 local time.  The analysts and economists said that FED might not raise interest rate this year.  It was possible for FED to keep Quantitative Easing policy in the near future.

Bank of Japan keep interest rate unchanged at 0-0. 1%.

STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / USD versus JPY&EUR Rose Slightly
« on: January 24, 2011, 08:46:30 AM »
The forex rate of US dollar against Japanese yen went up slightly today (Jan. 24, 2011) in Asian forex market.  Japanese importers and region hedge funds bought US dollar.

USD/JPY traded at 82. 77 as of 04:50 GMT today.  EUR/USD declined to 1. 3593 dollar.  Euro versus Japanese yen traded at 112. 54 yen today.

US dollar's forex rate as of 04:50 GMT today:
USD/JPY:  82. 76-77 82. 68-73 +0. 10 82. 81 82. 55 +1. 90
EUR/USD: 1. 3586-89 1. 3636-39 -0. 37 1. 3646 1. 3587 +1. 62
GBP/USD: 1. 5960-63 1. 6000-05 -0. 25 1. 6010 1. 5960 +2. 37
USD/CHF:  0. 9598-02 0. 9565-73 +0. 35 0. 9632 0. 9566 -10. 30
USD/CAD: 0. 9938-42 0. 9935-40 +0. 03 0. 9953 0. 9933 -0. 92
AUD/USD: 0. 9878-81 0. 9886-90 -0. 08 0. 9905 0. 9865 +0. 94
NZD/USD: 0. 7589-99 0. 7575-82 +0. 18 0. 7600 0. 7570 -2. 54

According to the report, the annual economic growth in China was very good last year.  Although the rising of inflation in China became slow slightly, the world's major investment Banks upgraded inflation forecast in China and increased prediction that People?s Bank of China would take tightening monetary policy to restrain the inflation.

Chinese GDP increased by 10. 3% in 2010, which was more than expectation.  Meanwhile, Chinese Consumer Price Index increased by 3. 3% last year.

The analysts pointed out that People?s Bank of China would raise deposit reserve ratio 150 points and would raise interest rate 50 points totally in six months.

STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / Britain Had Much More Pressures from Inflation
« on: January 20, 2011, 06:09:40 AM »
Britain economy was in bad condition as the commodity prices rose sharply recently.  According to the record, the growth of inflation in Britain was much more than expected.  Bank of England had more pressure from the inflation to raise its interest rate.

Britain Consumer Price Index increased by 3. 7% year-on-year last December.  Meanwhile, Britain CPI increased by 1% than its growth last month, which reached to the largest high level since 1996.  The analysts predicted that Britain CPI would increase more than 4% in 2011.

It was predicted that Bank of England might raise interest rate before the second quarter of this year to avoid credit crisis.

Recently Great Britain pound continued to go up as the speculation for interest rate rising by BoE increased.  The forex rate of GBP/USD broke 1. 6000 and reached to the two-month high level on Jan, 18. 2011.

At the beginning of this year(2011), the commodity prices in several Asian countries went up sharply.  There were some indications that it would be a very long time for these countries to take measures to restrain inflation.

According to the report, the inflation rate in India increased by 8. 4% on December in 2010. 

At present, one of the main task for Asian countries was to keep inflation down.  Bank of Japan restated that it would continue to restrain inflation.  In addition, other countries, such as Thailand,Korea,Indonesia and Singapore, had made tighten monetary policy and administrative measures to stabilize the commodity price.  The bank of Korea financial monetary committee had decided to raised benchmark interest rate to 2. 75%.

The analyst predicted that amplitude would increase in the forex market as the fluidity of hot money increased.

People?s Bank of China announced on Jan. 14, 2011 that it would cut financial institutions RMB deposit reserve rate by 0. 5% from Jan. 20,2011.  It was predicted that inflation would be serious in China in the further and the commodity money would subjected to the negative pressure.

People?s Bank of China had raised interest rate twice and had raised RMB deposit reserve rate six times last year(2010).

The forex rate of Australian dollar against Chinese yuan might continue to drop to 0. 9780 as the flood was bad for Australian economy.

Euro had been risen for a week long as the forex analysts predicted that European Central Bank would raise interest rate to restrain inflation.  According to the record, Consumer Price Index increased by 1. 0% in German on December,2010, which was the same as the expectation.  German CPI totally increased by 1. 7% in 2010, which was the same as expectation too.

Claude Trichet, president of European Central Bank, said that he would raise interest rate in a short term if necessary.  The prospect for EU economy was positive even the inflation might still exist in the middle of 2011.

BUSINESS and ECONOMY / US Stocks Went Down
« on: January 14, 2011, 09:56:19 AM »
US stocks declined in the morning trading on Jan. 13,2011 as its non-farm employment was bad.  The number of people filing for initial jobless claims in America increased to 4,450 thousand last week, which reached to the highest level in the past two months.

British stocks dclined by 0. 36%; France stocks increased by 0. 52%;Germany stocks dropped by 0. 05%; Spanish stocks sharply rose by 2. 79%.

Bank of England and Europan Central Bank announced that they kept interest rate unchanged recently.

The forex rate of US dollar against Indonesian rupiah traded at 9. 055 rupiah today(Jan. 12,2011), which decreased ten points in the forex market. 

The traders said that Bank of Indonesia might sell rupiah when the forex price of USD/IDR traded at 9,050 rupiah.  Then US dollar versus Indonesian rupiah went up sharply as the Indonesian stock market weakened. 

Another traders predicted that USD/IDR would fluctuate in the range of 9,040-9,075 on Thursday(Jan. 13,2011).

STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / USD/RMB Declined 88 Points
« on: January 12, 2011, 12:08:33 PM »
The forex rate of Chinese yuan against US dollar traded at 6. 6128 today(Jan. 12,2011), which went down 88 points.  Chinese yuan has been risen for a period of time recently and hit the record high level after the forex rate reform.

The forex rate of Euro against Chinese yuan was 8. 5851 today.  Great Britain pound versus Chinese yuan traded at 10. 3193 yuan on Jan. 12,2011.

US dollar against Major non-US currencies slid on Jan. 10,2011 as the good US non-far employment data supported US dollar.  However, the major non-US currencies rebounded slightly last Friday as the actual number of US employment was less than expectation.  In addition, Euro was the weakest on Jan. 7,2011.

According to the report, Portugal would ask a help from European Union to get rid of the debt crisis.  Italy, Portugal and Spain would sell treasury this week.

The forex rate of Euro versus US dollar rebounded yesterday.  Its resistance was 1. 30 and support level was 1. 28.  USD/CAD fluctuated in the forex market yesterday.  Its resistance was 0. 999 and support level was 0. 988.

STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / USD Strengthened, Rising of AUD Would Remain
« on: January 10, 2011, 10:23:12 AM »
US dollar increased on the good economy last week.  The forex rate of Australian dollar against US dollar went down to the lowest level of 0. 9907 in recent two weeks as the investors worried about the coal export would reduce after the flooding in Australia.  However, the analysts predicted that Australian dollar might go up after the flood-water receded.

Forex analysts pointed out that the US dollar would continue to rise to 83. 5 recently.

Chinese yuan weakened in the forex market as US dollar strengthened.  The forex rate of Chinese yuan against US dollar might trade at 6. 64 yuan recently.  The rising trend of Chinese yuan would be unchanged for a long time.

BUSINESS and ECONOMY / Size of Fed's Balance Sheet Hit the Highest Level
« on: January 09, 2011, 03:32:00 PM »
The size of Fed's balance sheet has been expanded since the Federal Reserve opterated the second round of quantitative easing policy.  FED planed to buy US nantional debt as much as 6,000 hundred million within eight months to stimulate economy to grow, which made the size of the Fed's balance sheet reach to the new record high point.

By the end of this Wednesday(Jan. 5,2011), Federal Reserve totlly had 1. 031 trillion US dollars.  FED totally had 1. 016 trillion by the end of last Monday(Dec. 27,2010).  The size of the Fed?s balance sheet increased from 2. 403 trillion to 2. 418 trillion this week(Jan. 5,2011), which was the index to measure the loan borrowed by FED.

The minutes of meeting on interest rate by Federal Reserve was issued on Jan. 4,2011, which showed that Federal Reserve would operate the second round of quantitative easing policy about 6,000 billion dollars. 

US consumer spending went up sharply on October and November in 2010.  So the officials from FED considered that US economic recovery has been sped up gradually. 

The utilisation rate of US manufacturing industry continued to rise.  The US non-far employment increased.  The inflation was expected to be stable.  US unemployment rate was 9. 8%, which was higher than expectaion.  The inflation rate was 0. 6%, which was lower than prediction.

Federal Reserve considered that the US Gross Domestic Product might increase rencently and US economy would increase by 3. 0%-3. 6% in 2011.

Accoding to the report, the economic growth in Germany was in bad condition.  It was predicted that German government was not able to support for tax cuts in the next two years.

DIW predicted that German Gross Domestic Product would only increased by 1. 3% in 2012, and its GDP might increase by 2. 2% in 2011.  German GDP rose by 3. 7% in 2010.

On one hand, there were some good economic dates in German, which was good for its currency.  On the other hand, the debt crisis in Euro zone would have bad effects on Germany economy. 

STOCK and FOREX EXCHANGE / USD/IDR Decreased, Indonesia CPI Was High
« on: January 03, 2011, 12:37:52 PM »
The forex rate of US dollar against Indonesia Rupiah went down to 8. 975 rupiah though the Consumer Price Index in Indonesia was higher than expectation. 

The forex traders pointed out that Indonesia inflation rate went up to 6. 96% on December, which was higher than the expectation of 6. 7%.  However the high inflation rate would not have much influence on the rupiah as the demand for Indonesia Rupiah increased. 

It was predicted that the forex rate of US dollar against Indonesia Rupiah would be at the range of 8,970-8,980 today.  (Jan. 3rd, 2011)

The US dollar index continued to go down on Dec. 30,2010.  Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 68. 6 on December.  The US jobless claims decreased to 3. 880 thousand people last week(amid the Christmas holidays).

US dollar index prediction:
Resistance: 79. 60 79. 70 79. 80
Support level: 79. 40 79. 30 79. 20

Short-term(in one week) rising
Mid-term(1-3 months) rising
Long-term(more than 3 months) falling

USD/CHF prediction:
Resistance: 0. 9400 0. 9420 0. 9440
Support level: 0. 9360 0. 9340 0. 9300

Short-term(in one week) fluctuate
Mid-term(1-3 months) slight bearish
Long-term(more than 3 months) falling

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