Nigeria to supply 23 per cent of Africa’s hydrocarbon need, says report
Wednesday, 14 July 2010 00:00 By Roseline Okere Business Services – Business News

NIGERIA is expected to account for 11.92 per cent of African regional crude oil demand by 2014, while providing 22.92 per cent of supply.
Business Monitor International (BMI) 2010 third quarter report, released on Monday, stated that African regional oil use of 2.98 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.60 million bpd in 2009.
“It should average 3.67 million bpd in 2010 and then rise to around 4.14 million bpd by 2014. Regional oil production was 7.84 million bpd in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 9.69 million bpd. It is set to rise to 11.79 million bpd by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion”.
According to the report, the region was exporting an average 4.86 million b/d in 2010. “This total had risen to an estimated 6.08 million bpd in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.66 million bpd by 2014. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to soar if it can resolve recent quasi-political issues”.
The report disclosed further that in terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 122.9 billion cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 175.9bcm forecast for 2014.
“Production of an estimated 242.6 bcm in 2009 should reach 391.9bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 120 bcm in 2009 to 216 bcm in 2014.
“In 2009 Nigeria consumed an estimated 14.65 per cent of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 19.90 per cent by 2014. It contributed 16.49 per cent to estimated 2009 regional gas production and, by 2014, will account for 22.45 per cent of supply.
“We are sticking with our forecast that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) basket of crudes will average $83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around $85.11, $88.22 and $83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at $83.14.
“By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average $85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of $90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket”, the report added.
The report stated that Gasoil is expected to average $92.45/bbl in 2010, with the full-year outturn representing a 37 per cent increase from the 2009 level. “For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be $95.58/bbl. This compares with $70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at $82.46/bbl, up 39 per cent from the previous year’s level”.
It also predicted an increase in Nigerian oil and gas production of 55.3 per cent between 2010 and 2019, with volume rising steadily to 3.40 million bpd by the end of the 10-year forecast period.
“Oil consumption is set to increase by 82.9 per cent, with growth slowing to an assumed 7.5 per cent per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 708,000bpd by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise to 126bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 205.3 per cent between 2010 and 2019, export potential should increase to 65bcm, largely in the form of LNG”, the report added.